In going from world-destroying statistical phenomenon to modest, seemingly non-dominant and totally reliant on "clutch" nibbling for team success, it's almost as if he's having Tom Brady's career in reverse.
The thing that annoys me about the Mahomes GOAT talk is that Brady did it for two decades. Mahomes is up there with lots of great dynasties. Aikman, Young, Montana. It’s just … he has to do it one and a half more times to make it to Brady. Until someone does that, Brady is the GOAT.
Baseball is probably the toughest sport to define a GOAT. The traditional Ruth argument or the gutsy Ryan argument or the modern Jeter argument. All undeniably great.
The point about pundits is bang-on and an under-discussed phenomenon. When I listen to Mays, who is one of my favourite pundits but one who especially prizes respectability among his peers, I can hear him anticipating aggregation and "freezing cold takes" stuff as he speaks. There's always a panicky caveat if he feels himself going off the beaten path.
Sportswriters have always been like this, to some extent, but there's an increasingly big divide between the self-consciously controversial writers who do it on purpose and the pundits I like. I mean, I could tell you every Rich Eisen take before he speaks, but it's a bummer that so many others are becoming just as predictable.
I seem to remember people writing off Tom Brady for what seemed like years, and all he did was win two more Super Bowls. Patrick Mahomes annoys me (probably more than any professional football player excluding John Elway) and he may very well be on a decline (his inability to avoid sacks like he used to is a bad sign). But, it's possible that he will find a way to adjust his game and continue to play at a very high level.
Even though he has been amazing to watch, I've never liked the Chief's, so I can't say I'd be sorry to see him fade away.
His performance has clearly declined, but he's only 29 which is why many people may not believe he's on the downslope of his career. Still, he looked dreadful yesterday, the worst I've ever seen him. Was that because of the Eagles' game plan, the degradation of a roster that should never have won 15 games except for luck, or is he going from otherworldly to just good, on the way to washed?
Last night provided a great reminder of the fundamental importance of line play. That late TD bomb seemed like the first time in the entire game when PM was able to drop, set, and step-up into the throw. But, as noted, he may have peaked by now. It’s happened many times - a guy is on fire one year, takes on water or even disappears beneath the waves the next: Joe Kapp, Mark Rypein, et al. And great teams can make it on some weird, mysterious combo of will and luck. The 3-pete Packers of ‘67 were almost spent, and Bart Starr had an off year. But they were money when they had to be. Keep watching. Football’s a funny game.
I’m curious why more sports pundits didn’t see this one coming. The Eagles have a monster defense, and one conclusion that is almost a scientific certainty at this point is that offense wins season records, but defense wins championships. As a lifelong Broncos fan, I watched them eat shit over and over and over in the Superbowl, even though both Elway and Manning were putting up ridiculous, record shattering seasons due to this inescapable fact
That deep ball for the last TD certainly indicates that Mahomes still has the arm, so I think it’s way too early to talk about Mahomes never being an MVP-caliber player.
I happened to look at the list of SB games on Wikipedia, and the Patriots had a 10 year drought from 2005 to 2015. Granted that included 2008 where they dominated until the very last game (kind of amusing that there was a Victor Cruz commercial yesterday). You can split up the Pats SB wins into two groups: Three at the beginning of Brady’s career; three at the end. KC and Mahomes still have three in the bag, with five appearances, and this was Mahomes’ eighth season, right in line with Brady’s appearances/championships, and the Pats still had another 7 or so years before they got another SB win.
Mahomes was so bad yesterday that I wonder if he took a concussion early in the game or something. They also have had little running game with Pacheco never really recovering. Their only hope was Jalen Hurts turning over the ball and it was Mahomes doing it instead. KC shut down Barkley effectively but then got torched in every other way by Hurts.
I expect the Chiefs to have a few down years (i.e. not having home field advantage throughout the playoffs / early exits) and then to make another, shorter run. Fairly or not, some of these GOAT QBs also get a legacy boost when they go to another team and succeed (Brady, P. Manning, K. Warner). Hard to think of Mahomes out of KC but you never know.
Brady's career arc was, in an important respect, U-shaped: 3 Super Bowl titles in his first four seasons as a starter ... but then an 8-season drought before he won 4 more titles (with these last four coming only after he'd entered his 40th year on earth). Granted, there were still a pair of Super Bowl appearance mixed into this drought, including the epic undefeated regular 2007 season ... but still, a drought.
In the aftermath of that career, GOAT candidacy can now only be assessed over a time-horizon that's practically measured in decades.
Freddie has long been correct to dismiss the "Mahomes-as-GOAT" narrative as massively premature. But by the same token -- and using Brady's own career as a benchmark here -- *dismissals* of Mahomes's GOAT prospects, on the basis of the past couple seasons, are still quite premature.
You are correct: for the 4th one (over Seattle) he was only 37. The 5th one (the epic comeback against Atlanta) he was 39 -- i.e., "in his 40th year," which is what I'd meant to capture with the somewhat nonstandard language of "after he'd entered his 40th year on earth." But you're totally right about the Seattle victory. I remember now that I'd originally intended to write "... 4 more titles (with THREE OF these last four coming ...)", but then wrote it incorrectly.
Man, I needed an editor or fact-checker on that comment, didn't I?! Sorry.
I haven't really cared about the NFL in general for decades now, don't even watch any games anymore. But even I can tell he's playing subpar. His O-line certainly isn't helping, but that can't be all of it. His past uncanny craftiness is definitely fraying at the seams.
As someone born and raised in KC, but haven't lived there in 30 years, the Mahomes love/hate dynamic is remarkable to me. Kansas Citians just adore the dude, he's already a legend to them which I can sort of understand - KC hadn't had a good quarterback in generations (Montana doesn't count).
But why both the sports literati seem to love the guy, and inversely other teams' fans can't stand him, is a head-scratcher to me. The unearned love and hate both seem out of place to me, I don't think he deserves either really.
The funny thing about this newsletter is you never know if you’re going to get a heterodox leftist take or a heterodox sports stats take. Keeps you on your toes.
I’m not much into football - just never clicked with me like baseball did. But I did watch the entire game, and I didn’t come away with the impression that Mahomes had any great deficit. As far as he goes I saw a (maybe a bit rattled) QB pulling every desperate, risky stunt he could to close the gap - he ran like a maniac, and did it well, and tossed everything he could.
The Eagles were a fucking brick wall. What was he going to do? They had no gaps in their offense or defense. It’s like they employed psychics.
Now I start this by saying that I always thought the path to GOAT was much steeper. For me what cemented Brady as the GOAT was not what he did on the Pats, it was doing what he did on the Pats then going to a solid but no one's idea of great Tampa Bay team and winning another Super Bowl. Just because he could. So for me Mahomes has to have a lot more career than he has had so far for the conversation to start making any kind of sense.
Re: last night I think the Eagles defense is just that good. I also think KC may be suffering from some serious hubris. My Skins/Manders played the Eagles much better in all 3 meetings, even if they went 1-2 by understanding that the only way to beat an excellent defense with a competent enough offense is to take risks. KC took no risks last night and the result was Mahomes smothered by the D line.
Bigger picture, while Mahomes has declined in performance somewhat, I think the open question is whether some improved scheme and coaching couldn't get him back closer to previous form. Obviously you don't want to totally blow up something that's gotten you to the SB repeatedly but if I'm Reid my off-season homework assignment to my offensive staff is to bring in some ideas to give the team a spark. They haven't had one in 2 years.
You’re the George Will of all sports
In going from world-destroying statistical phenomenon to modest, seemingly non-dominant and totally reliant on "clutch" nibbling for team success, it's almost as if he's having Tom Brady's career in reverse.
The thing that annoys me about the Mahomes GOAT talk is that Brady did it for two decades. Mahomes is up there with lots of great dynasties. Aikman, Young, Montana. It’s just … he has to do it one and a half more times to make it to Brady. Until someone does that, Brady is the GOAT.
Very much agree. We shouldn't be talking about it until 2030 at the earliest.
Agreed. GOAT requires spectacular peak AND sustained excellence. Mahomes has a ways to go to achieve the second part.
GOAT always has a longevity component. Gretzky. Jeter. Jordan. You have to be a winner from start to finish in a long race.
How did Jeter get on that list?
Baseball is probably the toughest sport to define a GOAT. The traditional Ruth argument or the gutsy Ryan argument or the modern Jeter argument. All undeniably great.
its ruth
The point about pundits is bang-on and an under-discussed phenomenon. When I listen to Mays, who is one of my favourite pundits but one who especially prizes respectability among his peers, I can hear him anticipating aggregation and "freezing cold takes" stuff as he speaks. There's always a panicky caveat if he feels himself going off the beaten path.
Sportswriters have always been like this, to some extent, but there's an increasingly big divide between the self-consciously controversial writers who do it on purpose and the pundits I like. I mean, I could tell you every Rich Eisen take before he speaks, but it's a bummer that so many others are becoming just as predictable.
"many listed the Chiefs O-line as a core strength"
Who?? Did they watch this season?
I seem to remember people writing off Tom Brady for what seemed like years, and all he did was win two more Super Bowls. Patrick Mahomes annoys me (probably more than any professional football player excluding John Elway) and he may very well be on a decline (his inability to avoid sacks like he used to is a bad sign). But, it's possible that he will find a way to adjust his game and continue to play at a very high level.
Even though he has been amazing to watch, I've never liked the Chief's, so I can't say I'd be sorry to see him fade away.
His performance has clearly declined, but he's only 29 which is why many people may not believe he's on the downslope of his career. Still, he looked dreadful yesterday, the worst I've ever seen him. Was that because of the Eagles' game plan, the degradation of a roster that should never have won 15 games except for luck, or is he going from otherworldly to just good, on the way to washed?
Last night provided a great reminder of the fundamental importance of line play. That late TD bomb seemed like the first time in the entire game when PM was able to drop, set, and step-up into the throw. But, as noted, he may have peaked by now. It’s happened many times - a guy is on fire one year, takes on water or even disappears beneath the waves the next: Joe Kapp, Mark Rypein, et al. And great teams can make it on some weird, mysterious combo of will and luck. The 3-pete Packers of ‘67 were almost spent, and Bart Starr had an off year. But they were money when they had to be. Keep watching. Football’s a funny game.
That fuckin play cost me a square!
Mahomes is just a punk, no matter how we analyze it!
Condolences 💐
I’m curious why more sports pundits didn’t see this one coming. The Eagles have a monster defense, and one conclusion that is almost a scientific certainty at this point is that offense wins season records, but defense wins championships. As a lifelong Broncos fan, I watched them eat shit over and over and over in the Superbowl, even though both Elway and Manning were putting up ridiculous, record shattering seasons due to this inescapable fact
That deep ball for the last TD certainly indicates that Mahomes still has the arm, so I think it’s way too early to talk about Mahomes never being an MVP-caliber player.
I happened to look at the list of SB games on Wikipedia, and the Patriots had a 10 year drought from 2005 to 2015. Granted that included 2008 where they dominated until the very last game (kind of amusing that there was a Victor Cruz commercial yesterday). You can split up the Pats SB wins into two groups: Three at the beginning of Brady’s career; three at the end. KC and Mahomes still have three in the bag, with five appearances, and this was Mahomes’ eighth season, right in line with Brady’s appearances/championships, and the Pats still had another 7 or so years before they got another SB win.
Mahomes was so bad yesterday that I wonder if he took a concussion early in the game or something. They also have had little running game with Pacheco never really recovering. Their only hope was Jalen Hurts turning over the ball and it was Mahomes doing it instead. KC shut down Barkley effectively but then got torched in every other way by Hurts.
I expect the Chiefs to have a few down years (i.e. not having home field advantage throughout the playoffs / early exits) and then to make another, shorter run. Fairly or not, some of these GOAT QBs also get a legacy boost when they go to another team and succeed (Brady, P. Manning, K. Warner). Hard to think of Mahomes out of KC but you never know.
Brady's career arc was, in an important respect, U-shaped: 3 Super Bowl titles in his first four seasons as a starter ... but then an 8-season drought before he won 4 more titles (with these last four coming only after he'd entered his 40th year on earth). Granted, there were still a pair of Super Bowl appearance mixed into this drought, including the epic undefeated regular 2007 season ... but still, a drought.
In the aftermath of that career, GOAT candidacy can now only be assessed over a time-horizon that's practically measured in decades.
Freddie has long been correct to dismiss the "Mahomes-as-GOAT" narrative as massively premature. But by the same token -- and using Brady's own career as a benchmark here -- *dismissals* of Mahomes's GOAT prospects, on the basis of the past couple seasons, are still quite premature.
(Sorry, actually a NINE-season drought. That win over the Eagles was the 2005 Super Bowl, but the 2004 season.)
D'oh: TEN-year drought. Sorry, gang: don't know why I'm so bad at math today.
Anyway: just makes my point all the stronger. =)
I think we won his 4th and 5th SB before he was 40.
You are correct: for the 4th one (over Seattle) he was only 37. The 5th one (the epic comeback against Atlanta) he was 39 -- i.e., "in his 40th year," which is what I'd meant to capture with the somewhat nonstandard language of "after he'd entered his 40th year on earth." But you're totally right about the Seattle victory. I remember now that I'd originally intended to write "... 4 more titles (with THREE OF these last four coming ...)", but then wrote it incorrectly.
Man, I needed an editor or fact-checker on that comment, didn't I?! Sorry.
I haven't really cared about the NFL in general for decades now, don't even watch any games anymore. But even I can tell he's playing subpar. His O-line certainly isn't helping, but that can't be all of it. His past uncanny craftiness is definitely fraying at the seams.
As someone born and raised in KC, but haven't lived there in 30 years, the Mahomes love/hate dynamic is remarkable to me. Kansas Citians just adore the dude, he's already a legend to them which I can sort of understand - KC hadn't had a good quarterback in generations (Montana doesn't count).
But why both the sports literati seem to love the guy, and inversely other teams' fans can't stand him, is a head-scratcher to me. The unearned love and hate both seem out of place to me, I don't think he deserves either really.
The funny thing about this newsletter is you never know if you’re going to get a heterodox leftist take or a heterodox sports stats take. Keeps you on your toes.
I’m not much into football - just never clicked with me like baseball did. But I did watch the entire game, and I didn’t come away with the impression that Mahomes had any great deficit. As far as he goes I saw a (maybe a bit rattled) QB pulling every desperate, risky stunt he could to close the gap - he ran like a maniac, and did it well, and tossed everything he could.
The Eagles were a fucking brick wall. What was he going to do? They had no gaps in their offense or defense. It’s like they employed psychics.
Can't wait for MLB opening day. So many good story lines and a ton of exciting young players. Who is your team?
Now I start this by saying that I always thought the path to GOAT was much steeper. For me what cemented Brady as the GOAT was not what he did on the Pats, it was doing what he did on the Pats then going to a solid but no one's idea of great Tampa Bay team and winning another Super Bowl. Just because he could. So for me Mahomes has to have a lot more career than he has had so far for the conversation to start making any kind of sense.
Re: last night I think the Eagles defense is just that good. I also think KC may be suffering from some serious hubris. My Skins/Manders played the Eagles much better in all 3 meetings, even if they went 1-2 by understanding that the only way to beat an excellent defense with a competent enough offense is to take risks. KC took no risks last night and the result was Mahomes smothered by the D line.
Bigger picture, while Mahomes has declined in performance somewhat, I think the open question is whether some improved scheme and coaching couldn't get him back closer to previous form. Obviously you don't want to totally blow up something that's gotten you to the SB repeatedly but if I'm Reid my off-season homework assignment to my offensive staff is to bring in some ideas to give the team a spark. They haven't had one in 2 years.