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I think there is a 20% chance Bernie runs. It seems like he is angling that way in some of the media he puts out and there were a few press articles. Myself, I hope he runs.

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The question is what is the inflation rate in 2024 and what is the unemployment rate? If you see both right around 6% I think that's a substantial impediment to any incumbent's re-election campaign. There is precedent in Johnson deciding to retire because circumstances on the ground probably made his re-election impossible.

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It would be pointless. Many of his former backers no longer back him for one reason or another.

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