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TC Manning's avatar

This argument always reminded me of this Calvin and Hobbes comic:

https://www.gocomics.com/calvinandhobbes/2018/10/25

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Alcibiades's avatar

I still think Taleb has the most succinct and effective dismissal of this stuff: History was shaped by black swan events that no one predicted. The future will also be shaped by black swan events that no one predicts.

A decrease in volatility is not a sign that risk has decreased. It often means you are measuring wrong, or more likely, there are hidden factors you don't know about until too late. It always look obvious in hindsight, but no one gets it right as it's happening.

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