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Erin E.'s avatar

I have three kids and I’m frankly exhausted. I’m glad I have them. But they’re also a mess and expensive and selfish and at various times like small sociopaths —and I’ve got good ones! I don’t think the moral argument holds up.

Ryan Davidson's avatar

Historically, yes, the argument was "have as many kids as you can," because until 1900, north of 25% of infants died within their first year, and north of 45% died before before age 15. Globally. Worldwide. By 1950, that dropped to a bit over 15% before age 1 and over 25% before age 15. Now, it's a bit under 3% before age 1 and under 5% before age 15. So really, even just maintaining the population meant that the average woman needed to have something like 4-5 kids. Filter out those who didn't/couldn't/died first, and this means that women who did have kids must have had, on average, more than 4-5 each.

While infant and childhood mortality was so high, nobody really needed to worry about things like cumulative resource use or population growth. Just wasn't an issue. If you didn't have as many kids as possible, there just wouldn't be anyone within a few generations. Today? Yeah, lots of things are going to need to be reevaluated.

Seriously, I'm increasingly convinced that a majority of what are viewed as intractable social/political problems that have emerged in the last century or so (as distinct from those that have existed forever, e.g., "People tend to be assholes if they think they can get away with it.") are to a significant degree simply functions of scale. Solutions that worked with a global population of 150 million don't work with a global population in excess of 6 billion. Going to have to figure that out one way or the other.

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