Folks, this coming Thursday, the NFL will inaugurate the regular season of the only sport I still follow with a battle between Saquon Barkley’s Philadelphia Eagles and Micah Parsons’s Kenny Clark’s Dallas Cowboys.
The league loves a narrative and he still has top 10 arm talent, despite everything. If he gets them to 9-8 to keep the Tomlin streak alive and is something like a top 8-10 QB in doing so, they'll love the story. I grant you that this is all more unlikely than likely but it's all about value here.
Speaking of "regression to the mean," isn't the ongoing treatment of Lamar Jackson effectively the opposite? Why do we narratively expect "meaning" from a small sample of playoff appearances that a specific player's successes or "continued failures" in a highly competitive game with yearly equalizing draft mechanisms? Shouldn't we expect even the best player in a sea of "best players" to dance around the inner fringe of simply making the playoffs and having close games therein? Isn't that the natural mean from which we shouldn't expect or be surprised by strong deviation?
Kudos for heads-up pick of the Seahawks to take the NFC West. You're an outlier prognosticator, perhaps because it's easier for Seattle teams to fly under the media radar. They've done a lot in the off-season to improve on an already-winning record, and the rest of the West has cracks showing.
I rarely read your sports commentary, but today, I read the entire essay. I was rewarded when you predicted the following: Offensive Player of the Year: Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons.
I knew Bijan at Salpointe HS, and as yearbook moderator, I was lucky enough to talk to him a couple times for a feature we wrote on him. He was able to walk that thin line between confident and cocky without ever slipping into arrogance. May Bijan have a terrific year!
Well written column, interesting even though I do not care about football or any organized sport. Curiosity: my free ("no additional cost") little Google Chromebook AI says, "A Marxist would not approve of football as it exists under capitalism. The analysis critiques the professional sport as an industry that reinforces capitalist ideologies of competition, consumerism, and class division. Rather than seeing it as a source of enjoyment, a Marxist perspective views modern, commercialized football as an extension of capitalist labor that alienates both players and fans. " Is the AI definition b.s.? Or is this just an example of the sparkling contradictions in life that make the lived experience dappled and interesting?
Like you, the first Sunday of the NFL has always been very special to me. Even though the Thursday night game is now the official start of the season, Sunday is still the beginning of the season for me.
I'll give you guts for selecting the Bills to win it all. They always seem to find a way to lose the big game. I feel bad for their fans. But then again, as a Browns' fan, I know what pain is. BTW: the fans out here were referring to Shedeur as "the legendary" after his preseason start against Carolina. I, however, spotted a lot of flaws in his game, which showed in his disastrous performance against the Rams. He might make it as a backup in the league, but he needs to get rid of the ball quicker if he wants to succeed.
It's very hard to repeat but I have a hard time counting out the Eagles to go all the way again. RBs don't age well and maybe this will be the big drop-off year for Saquon, but I think he has one more dominating season in him.
There’s always talk about how preseason predictions always seem too safe, but we’ve been seeing 2-3 new playoff teams per conference the last couple years and you’re aligned with that. Usually something insane happens that nobody gets; e.g. I challenge anyone to find a preseason prediction piece that had Washington over .500. Also, a glaring omission from your predictions, which I find interesting. I’ll trust the Falcons when that franchise stops tripping over its own feet. That said, I’d have said that about Washington not long ago …
The league loves a narrative and he still has top 10 arm talent, despite everything. If he gets them to 9-8 to keep the Tomlin streak alive and is something like a top 8-10 QB in doing so, they'll love the story. I grant you that this is all more unlikely than likely but it's all about value here.
Here here about "regression!!" Drives me batty; I used to teach against it, but now I'm retired.
Have you checked if LLMs make the mistake?
Speaking of "regression to the mean," isn't the ongoing treatment of Lamar Jackson effectively the opposite? Why do we narratively expect "meaning" from a small sample of playoff appearances that a specific player's successes or "continued failures" in a highly competitive game with yearly equalizing draft mechanisms? Shouldn't we expect even the best player in a sea of "best players" to dance around the inner fringe of simply making the playoffs and having close games therein? Isn't that the natural mean from which we shouldn't expect or be surprised by strong deviation?
Oakland Raiders...sad
lol whoops
Not sad at all, Freddie. A proper nod to the team's truest identity. And thanks for picking them for the playoffs. Warmed this fan's heart.
Kudos for heads-up pick of the Seahawks to take the NFC West. You're an outlier prognosticator, perhaps because it's easier for Seattle teams to fly under the media radar. They've done a lot in the off-season to improve on an already-winning record, and the rest of the West has cracks showing.
I rarely read your sports commentary, but today, I read the entire essay. I was rewarded when you predicted the following: Offensive Player of the Year: Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons.
I knew Bijan at Salpointe HS, and as yearbook moderator, I was lucky enough to talk to him a couple times for a feature we wrote on him. He was able to walk that thin line between confident and cocky without ever slipping into arrogance. May Bijan have a terrific year!
So no hope for our Chicago Bears, eh? As an ex Chicago guy, I think the Bears fortunes will revive with new owners... just like the Cubs.
I think this will be a year that brings hope but not a winning record
As a Chicagoan, I gotta just accept it😆
Hey, how about weighing in on the Kenny Clark trade?
Well written column, interesting even though I do not care about football or any organized sport. Curiosity: my free ("no additional cost") little Google Chromebook AI says, "A Marxist would not approve of football as it exists under capitalism. The analysis critiques the professional sport as an industry that reinforces capitalist ideologies of competition, consumerism, and class division. Rather than seeing it as a source of enjoyment, a Marxist perspective views modern, commercialized football as an extension of capitalist labor that alienates both players and fans. " Is the AI definition b.s.? Or is this just an example of the sparkling contradictions in life that make the lived experience dappled and interesting?
Like you, the first Sunday of the NFL has always been very special to me. Even though the Thursday night game is now the official start of the season, Sunday is still the beginning of the season for me.
I'll give you guts for selecting the Bills to win it all. They always seem to find a way to lose the big game. I feel bad for their fans. But then again, as a Browns' fan, I know what pain is. BTW: the fans out here were referring to Shedeur as "the legendary" after his preseason start against Carolina. I, however, spotted a lot of flaws in his game, which showed in his disastrous performance against the Rams. He might make it as a backup in the league, but he needs to get rid of the ball quicker if he wants to succeed.
Thanks for the column!
It's very hard to repeat but I have a hard time counting out the Eagles to go all the way again. RBs don't age well and maybe this will be the big drop-off year for Saquon, but I think he has one more dominating season in him.
Awesome season overview. I got sold on Omarion Hampton in fantasy. that may be a whoops
Aaron Rodgers??
There’s always talk about how preseason predictions always seem too safe, but we’ve been seeing 2-3 new playoff teams per conference the last couple years and you’re aligned with that. Usually something insane happens that nobody gets; e.g. I challenge anyone to find a preseason prediction piece that had Washington over .500. Also, a glaring omission from your predictions, which I find interesting. I’ll trust the Falcons when that franchise stops tripping over its own feet. That said, I’d have said that about Washington not long ago …