If the Las Vegas Raiders Don't Trade Down From the First Overall Pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, They'll Regret It

the team has much deeper problems than Fernando Mendoza can fix

Just about the entire football-watching world is convinced that the Las Vegas Raiders, who hold the first overall pick in the upcoming NFL amateur draft, will use that pick to select standout Indiana University quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who led the Hoosiers to the 2025 NCAA national championship. But I’m here to tell you that doing so would be a mistake, and honestly I’m surprised more people aren’t saying so. If the Raiders are serious about building a sustainable contender, rather than chasing headlines and the fleeting pleasures of a lottery ticket, they should resist the temptation to draft Mendoza and instead execute a disciplined and asset-maximizing reset. This roster simply is not a single-quarterback-away operation; they need just about everything. Pretending otherwise would only prolong mediocrity. Their best bet is to trade the pick.

Start with the obvious: quarterback prospects, especially those outside the consensus elite tier, are volatile bets. Even if Mendoza does have the goods as a starter, the structural weaknesses around him (most notably along the offensive line) would stunt his growth and risk turning him into yet another young passer forced to survive rather than develop. Tim Couch, David Carr, Sam Darnold, even Joe Burrow - the list of QBs who have been unable to make the most of their talents and turn struggling franchises around because of bad offensive line play is long and depressing. The Raiders’ pass protection has been inconsistent at best for years, their interior line in particular has been a seize, and their overall team depth remains thin. Sticking a rookie quarterback behind a subpar line and hoping he can overcome his surroundings with pure talent is not a plan; it’s a gamble that has led to coaching turnover and franchise instability many times. How many times do we need to watch this movie before we start taking the obvious lessons from it?

Look at the performance of the Raiders last first round pick. Running back Alshon Jeanty is incredibly talented, but his production last year didn’t come close to pre draft hype because the Raiders simply don’t have a good enough team to take advantage of him.

I think that this analysis is true even if you believe Mendoza is a solid A- QB prospect. It also happens, though, that I think he’s a bigger risk than the football world seems to believe. It’s fair to be intrigued by the upside of Mendoza, but his athletic limitations are a real concern when projecting to the NFL. Mendoza has consistently had analysts saying “He’s not a great athlete, but….” And in today’s NFL, that worries me. QB athleticism really matters. The Super Bowl-winning Darnold’s redemption story has obscured this point, but he was considered a high-caliber athlete when he was selected in the 2018 draft, not on the level of his draftmates Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson but still a rare physical specimen. Mendoza is… not that. He’s got a good arm, but not a great one. He’s got ideal size but hasn’t demonstrated that he can use that size in the style of an Allen or a Justin Herbert. He’s not a dynamic runner, to put it mildly, and in today’s league (where defensive lines close quickly and off-schedule creation is essential) that matters. In general, Mendoza is going to be drafted for his accuracy from the pocket, his ability to read a defense, and his “intangibles.” Those things certainly matter, but they can be taught; elite arm talent and scrambling ability that threatens modern NFL defenses can’t be.

By contrast, consider a classic distressed asset at quarterback, a player who’s widely perceived to have worn out his welcome with the team who drafted him and is certainly available: Kyler Murray. Murray may be less sexy because he’s already a known commodity, while Mendoza possesses the tantalizing mystery of a projection, but the known commodity that Murray represents includes rare athleticism, proven production against NFL defenses, and the demonstrated ability to stress coverage with both arm talent and mobility. Murray is an underrated processor and has had multiple years of success on the NFL level, which most QB prospects never achieve. It’s true that Murray has limitations; you have to design an offense around his limited ability to throw over the middle, commonly attributed to his height. (He’s listed at 5’10 but has been repeatedly alleged to be a full inch shorter.) Mendoza might develop into a solid pro, but betting on him to surpass Murray requires assuming a developmental leap that’s far from guaranteed. Murray, for all his perceived ceiling questions, has already shown he can function and at times thrive at the NFL level, which arguably gives him at least an even chance of ultimately being the better quarterback.

Trading down from their current first-round slot is especially attractive this year thanks to the quirks of NFL draft value, particular regarding QB prospects. It’s really important to point out that, since this is generally considered a weaker draft class with only one elite QB prospect, the gulf between the value of pick 1.1 and picks 1.2 or lower has never been bigger. This might genuinely be the draft with the biggest delta between the value of the first pick (held by the Raiders) and the second pick (held by the New York Jets) in league history. A team that needs everything can’t afford to invest all of that value in one player, especially in a QB prospect like Mendoza who is seen as highly coveted but not nearly on the level of once-in-a-decade prospects like Andrew Luck. Sliding back into the later portion of the first round while recouping an additional 2027 first-rounder and other premium capital would dramatically increase flexibility for the Raiders. (Could you get the Jets to give you pick 1.2 and their 2027 first rounder and additional value for the chance to draft Mendoza? Based on last year’s Travis Hunter trade, I think you might.) Extra top 100 picks allow a team to attack multiple needs simultaneously - offensive line, secondary depth, interior defensive line, perhaps a true difference-making wide receiver.

It would also align the franchise with the long-game roster building strategies employed by perennial contenders: accumulate picks, widen the margin for error, and avoid tying your fate to a single uncertain prospect. Smart franchises understand that draft picks are always a crapshoot, and so the best approach is to accumulate many in the hopes of finding enough hits among the misses. The Raiders have not drafted well, in general, and they can’t afford to trust their scouting. They need the strength of numbers, and trading the pick that will bring in Mendoza ensures that advantage.

The next uncomfortable but logical step would be trading Maxx Crosby. Crosby is elite, durable, and beloved by Raider fans. But edge rushers peak in their late 20s, Crosby will be 29 when next season starts, and elite defenders command enormous trade value. If the team is not realistically positioned to compete for a Super Bowl in the next one to two seasons - spoiler: they aren’t - holding onto a premier-but-diminishing asset during a rebuild is inefficient. A Crosby trade could yield multiple high picks, accelerating the retooling process and providing the draft ammunition necessary to remake the trenches. I don’t think the Raiders are going to get the two firsts and a player they’re reportedly asking for in any Crosby trade, but they should certainly recoup a one and some change, which brings us back to quarterback. If the Arizona Cardinals are open to discussions around Murray, and every indication is that they’d like to move on, the Raiders should aggressively explore a deal centered around their 2026 second-round pick (pick number 33, not much less valuable than a late first rounder) plus additional compensation, perhaps a fifth-round sweetener. Murray is a known quantity: a former Pro Bowler with mobility, arm talent, and experience operating in high-variance offenses. He’s not perfect, but he is demonstrably capable of elevating an offense immediately. And for a starting quarterback who’s already gotten paid, his contract is very reasonable.

For the record, if you do trade the first pick for another top-five pick, you’d be able to draft Arvell Reese, Keldric Faulk, or David Bailey, any of whom could give you potentially 80% of what Crosby does for a fraction of the cap space. I’d probably go offensive line, but the beauty of this plan is that you can choose.

The combination of trading down, moving Crosby for premium draft capital, and acquiring Murray creates a coherent strategy for a team that’s been flailing ever since they lost the Super Bowl to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2002. It simultaneously stabilizes the quarterback position and supercharges long-term roster construction. And if Murray isn’t the guy, his contract is easier to get out of than those of many NFL starters; you could potentially draft his replacement in 2027 with the capital you’ve picked up and still have your elite 2026 picks. Rather than pinning their hopes on one rookie, the Raiders would be building infrastructure: reinforcing the offensive line, adding defensive depth, and stacking future picks for flexibility. The Raiders need multiple starters, not a single savior. A rookie quarterback would inherit structural problems beyond his ability to fix. A portfolio approach - diversifying assets, investing in the trenches, and acquiring a proven quarterback - offers a clearer path back to contention than gambling everything on one draft selection and hoping for magic.