The roster isn't a single quarterback away from success, but that doesn't mean taking Fernando with the first pick is a waste. The team is also in a great cap position with like 90 million to spend - so lots of areas can be addressed through FA.
Also Jeanty had a pretty solid rookie year - over 1,000 yards from scrimmage - while dealing with injuries on the OL and two doofuses as OL coach and OC. With Maxx, I can go both ways - trade him if you get what you want, but no harm in keeping him either. I like guys who like being Raiders, and the Raiders went through a process of trading a blue chip DE not long ago and it did jack shit.
You need a QB in this league, and a competent one on a rookie wage scale has been a pathway to success for a lot of different teams. Nobody is expecting immediate success, but the team has tried to fudge it for way too long. Kyler Murray is Geno Smith, Jimmy G, and Minshew by another name - no thanks (also a massive jabroni).
I wasn't looking closely at my phone and read the whole piece before I realized it was you and not Mike Tanier, And that's a compliment. but since I'm a Jets fan, you're scaring the hell out of me
Reasonable argument, but misses a few points specific to the Raiders.
1. The team itself and specifically its offensive line is very likely not as bad as its being characterized. The Raiders probably had the worst coaching of any team in the league last year. Pete Carroll undermined both the offensive and defensive coaching by trying to pretend a decade of scheme changes hadn't happened in the league. And his son's coaching of the offensive line was so poor it was subject to an exposé that revealed among other things that the players regularly met on their own.
2. You can only go so far under the cap before you just have to throw money away at players just so you can spend, and the Raiders are pretty much there. They should be able to add a number of players that way this year.
3. The QB lottery ticket only comes along once in a while and it's a good bet to take it if your goal is to lift your franchise. Not just in terms of hope, but in terms of stability and overall quality. Mendoza will offer the Raiders further cap room over the next 4 years that Kyler Murray and others like him won't. He will reset the team. And he may actually be very good. We know what Murray is and "very good" is not it. The Raiders need to escape QB purgatory and this is their chance to do it.
Is drafting Mendoza a risk? Of course it is. But so is the plan you lay out here. I'd bet on Mendoza rather than the alternative.
If Murray flames out, you'll likely be picking in the top ten anyway, now with an additional first round pick to package to go up and get Dante Moore or Arch Manning etc etc. And Murray's contract has a lot less money left on it than you'd think.
I like this argument a lot. It might be my preferred option in a press-free, fan-free vacuum. It's what I'd likely do in a table game. But I think it has two problems in the world in which the Raiders reside:
1. They already have the spot to draft a quarterback. They're already there. They don't need to maneuver there next year, which is in no way guaranteed to net them a young QB. Pass this up and then miss the chance at a QB, and the reputational consequences for the franchise would be grim.
2. Similar to the argument you made against tanking in the NBA, I don't think the Raiders can continue to just ask their fans to play the long game--even if that's only a year away. With a relatively new GM and a first-year coach who is unlike the retreads and interims they've had over the last decade, fans are primed to see clear movement forward now. Eggheads like me might prefer your plan, but a vast majority of fans would revolt.
good take, to which i'd add: the afc west will only become a more competitive division next year (kc and the chargers both underperformed last year) and the raiders are several assets away from being competitive.
I love this exercise. Any NFL fan can pretend to be an owner, or at least a GM. I can't get enough of it. It never gets old, every year there is a new group of young potential stars.
I am inclined to agree with you. The Jets are a likely trading partner and have picks to burn. Also, their future drafts picks are virtually assured to be at the top of whatever round the picks are from, further enhancing their value. Finally, it is a fairly safe bet that they will screw up Mendoza and ruin his confidence, and he will be available for pennies on the dollar in a trade a couple of years down the road, the Raiders could still end up with him.
I don't like Kyler Murray, who I feel is one of the most overrated players at the QB position. There is ample reason to mistrust his attitude and work ethic. Daniel Jones is available and has none of Murray's baggage. Or just find another QB in this draft and hope for the best.
I am rooting hard for Mendoza, despite how things ended at Berkeley, but if someone is going to give you an extra first to take him #1 you would be insane not to make that trade IMO.
Mendoza was great this year, but he was guiding an Indiana roster that - despite the lack of 4-5 stars players - was absolutely stacked with talented and *experienced* players, led by a generational coach. You can just watch the line play against blue blood teams for evidence.
Surrounded by more middling talent - eg, my Cal Golden Bears the season before - he’s like, a pretty good college QB, but the athletic limitations are fairly obvious and offensive results unexceptional. I would think that the #1 QB pick would be able to dominate mediocre ACC competition on the offensive side of the ball - and Cal definitely did not in 2024. (Contrast with Jared Goff, who did a decade prior surrounded by similar talent level and against IMO better competition.)
Again, I hope he succeeds and it’s a great story. But I’d definitely take the extra picks if I’m Oakland and it’s available.
Mike Davis is just like he is dad. He will do what benefits him financially the most. Not the team, not the fans him. If drafting Mendoza mean he could raise ticket prices then he will. If he could sell the pick for a good chunk of change he will do that.
Not trading down is a classic owner error. Some promising first-round talent has been thrashed into early retirement by owners who want the star power without foundation. If your offensive line isn’t top shelf you are just wasting your QB draft pick. Ask Robert Griffin III.
*cough* Jamarcus Russell *cough*
Oof
The roster isn't a single quarterback away from success, but that doesn't mean taking Fernando with the first pick is a waste. The team is also in a great cap position with like 90 million to spend - so lots of areas can be addressed through FA.
Also Jeanty had a pretty solid rookie year - over 1,000 yards from scrimmage - while dealing with injuries on the OL and two doofuses as OL coach and OC. With Maxx, I can go both ways - trade him if you get what you want, but no harm in keeping him either. I like guys who like being Raiders, and the Raiders went through a process of trading a blue chip DE not long ago and it did jack shit.
You need a QB in this league, and a competent one on a rookie wage scale has been a pathway to success for a lot of different teams. Nobody is expecting immediate success, but the team has tried to fudge it for way too long. Kyler Murray is Geno Smith, Jimmy G, and Minshew by another name - no thanks (also a massive jabroni).
I wasn't looking closely at my phone and read the whole piece before I realized it was you and not Mike Tanier, And that's a compliment. but since I'm a Jets fan, you're scaring the hell out of me
Reasonable argument, but misses a few points specific to the Raiders.
1. The team itself and specifically its offensive line is very likely not as bad as its being characterized. The Raiders probably had the worst coaching of any team in the league last year. Pete Carroll undermined both the offensive and defensive coaching by trying to pretend a decade of scheme changes hadn't happened in the league. And his son's coaching of the offensive line was so poor it was subject to an exposé that revealed among other things that the players regularly met on their own.
2. You can only go so far under the cap before you just have to throw money away at players just so you can spend, and the Raiders are pretty much there. They should be able to add a number of players that way this year.
3. The QB lottery ticket only comes along once in a while and it's a good bet to take it if your goal is to lift your franchise. Not just in terms of hope, but in terms of stability and overall quality. Mendoza will offer the Raiders further cap room over the next 4 years that Kyler Murray and others like him won't. He will reset the team. And he may actually be very good. We know what Murray is and "very good" is not it. The Raiders need to escape QB purgatory and this is their chance to do it.
Is drafting Mendoza a risk? Of course it is. But so is the plan you lay out here. I'd bet on Mendoza rather than the alternative.
If Murray flames out, you'll likely be picking in the top ten anyway, now with an additional first round pick to package to go up and get Dante Moore or Arch Manning etc etc. And Murray's contract has a lot less money left on it than you'd think.
I like this argument a lot. It might be my preferred option in a press-free, fan-free vacuum. It's what I'd likely do in a table game. But I think it has two problems in the world in which the Raiders reside:
1. They already have the spot to draft a quarterback. They're already there. They don't need to maneuver there next year, which is in no way guaranteed to net them a young QB. Pass this up and then miss the chance at a QB, and the reputational consequences for the franchise would be grim.
2. Similar to the argument you made against tanking in the NBA, I don't think the Raiders can continue to just ask their fans to play the long game--even if that's only a year away. With a relatively new GM and a first-year coach who is unlike the retreads and interims they've had over the last decade, fans are primed to see clear movement forward now. Eggheads like me might prefer your plan, but a vast majority of fans would revolt.
According to the Uber drivers in Vegas the Raiders "had better" draft Mendoza.
Isn't this exactly what the team just did with Geno? I'm not sure Dante Moore or Arch Manning are any more exciting of a prospect as Fernando either.
At a certain point, a team has to start building something. Starting with a QB is as good as any other option.
good take, to which i'd add: the afc west will only become a more competitive division next year (kc and the chargers both underperformed last year) and the raiders are several assets away from being competitive.
Is Alshon Jeanty the merger of Alshon Jeffery and Ashton Jeanty? :)
lol
I love this exercise. Any NFL fan can pretend to be an owner, or at least a GM. I can't get enough of it. It never gets old, every year there is a new group of young potential stars.
I am inclined to agree with you. The Jets are a likely trading partner and have picks to burn. Also, their future drafts picks are virtually assured to be at the top of whatever round the picks are from, further enhancing their value. Finally, it is a fairly safe bet that they will screw up Mendoza and ruin his confidence, and he will be available for pennies on the dollar in a trade a couple of years down the road, the Raiders could still end up with him.
I don't like Kyler Murray, who I feel is one of the most overrated players at the QB position. There is ample reason to mistrust his attitude and work ethic. Daniel Jones is available and has none of Murray's baggage. Or just find another QB in this draft and hope for the best.
Otherwise I think your thinking is sound.
I am rooting hard for Mendoza, despite how things ended at Berkeley, but if someone is going to give you an extra first to take him #1 you would be insane not to make that trade IMO.
Mendoza was great this year, but he was guiding an Indiana roster that - despite the lack of 4-5 stars players - was absolutely stacked with talented and *experienced* players, led by a generational coach. You can just watch the line play against blue blood teams for evidence.
Surrounded by more middling talent - eg, my Cal Golden Bears the season before - he’s like, a pretty good college QB, but the athletic limitations are fairly obvious and offensive results unexceptional. I would think that the #1 QB pick would be able to dominate mediocre ACC competition on the offensive side of the ball - and Cal definitely did not in 2024. (Contrast with Jared Goff, who did a decade prior surrounded by similar talent level and against IMO better competition.)
Again, I hope he succeeds and it’s a great story. But I’d definitely take the extra picks if I’m Oakland and it’s available.
Don’t count on village idiot Mark Davis to do the right thing. Regression to the mean, and then some, indeed.
Mike Davis is just like he is dad. He will do what benefits him financially the most. Not the team, not the fans him. If drafting Mendoza mean he could raise ticket prices then he will. If he could sell the pick for a good chunk of change he will do that.
Not trading down is a classic owner error. Some promising first-round talent has been thrashed into early retirement by owners who want the star power without foundation. If your offensive line isn’t top shelf you are just wasting your QB draft pick. Ask Robert Griffin III.
Damn. How much did I have drink that I actually paid to subscribe to a Hot Take sports site?
Will comment again after 60-90 days and I am allowed internet access.